Bundesliga – Week 34 Relegation Permutations

7 May

With matters at the top all but settled, attention turns to the wrong end of the table.

Hoffenheim, Kaiserslautern, Stuttgart, Werder Bremen, Köln and Schalke all (in one way or another) saved themselves on Saturday.

As Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt slipped to desperate defeats, Borussia Mönchengladbach got out of the relegation zone for the first time since week 8. With Pauli gone, this has set up an almighty 3-way scrap for to avoid 2nd and 3rd bottom.

15. Wolfsburg – 35 pts (-7 GD) @ Hoffenheim

16. Borussia M’gladbach – 35 pts (-17GD) @ Hamburg

17. Eintracht Frankfurt – 34 pts (-16GD) @ Borussia Dortmund

Obviously Wolfsburg remain in the driving seat because of their goal difference, but when you look at it from a statistical, home vs away record basis, Gladbach look the most likely to avoid relegation:

  • Wolfsburg (3 away wins all year) at Hoffenheim (4 home defeats all year)
  • Gladbach (5 away wins all year) at Hamburg (5 home defeats all year)
  • Frankfurt (4 away wins all year) at Dortmund (1 home defeat all year)

With football unlikely to work the way the statistics suggest, here’s the rundown on what would see which club safe:

Wolfsburg will STAY UP (finish 15th) if:

  • They win
  • They draw and both Frankfurt and Gladbach fail to win
  • They lose and Frankfurt fail to win and Gladbach lose

Gladbach will STAY UP (finish 15th) if:

  • They win and Wolfsburg fail to win
  • They draw and Wolfsburg lose and Frankfurt fail to win

Frankfurt will STAY UP (finish 15th) if:

  • They win and both Wolfsburg and Gladbach fail to win
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